Can the PS3 Save Sony?

[JAGPANZER]

condensed from the September 2006 issue of WIRED

The company that created the transistor radio and the Walkman
is at the precipice. If Sony's new $600 console doesn't blow gamers
away it may be time to say sayonara.........by Frank Rose.

Never try to introduce the same product twice.
That was the lesson from the E3 in may. A year earlier at E3 05 in LA, Sony
had wowed the gaming industry with demostrations of the upcoming PS3's
unprecedented graphical muscle. The machine wouldn't be available until
months after the X360's release; yet based on the spectacular preview,
many gamers had no problem waiting for the PS3. Then early this year,
Sony dropped a bombshell: the PS3 release would be pushed back until November. So when E3 came around again this spring,
everyone trooped out to the retro Hollywood loutusland of the Sony Pictures
lot-only to view the same console they'd been promised the year before.
Not Great.
Delays are nothing new in tech, bit Sony seemed intent on making the worst
of it. The crowd was kept waiting nearly an hour. Then Kaz Hirai(SCEA honcho)
took the stage to declare,
"The next generation doesn't start until we say it does!"
He meant it as a dig at MS, but to gamers who'd been salivating for a year,
his words were like a bi+ch slap. The demos that followed were no more
impressive than those the year before. Finally PS chief Ken Kutaragi announced
what everyone wanted to know: the price. $600 for the high end model?
The room gasped, then fell silent. Almost immediately, the blogosphere lit up
with denunciations:
Sony has turned it's back on gamers.
The PS3 will be a failure.
Kutaragi and Hirai are idiots.

60 years after its founding in the ashes of postwar Tokyo,
the company is deeply wounded. Only once in the past 5 years has Sony's
all-important electronics division posted a profit. Sony desperately needs to
stay on top in gaming. It's not just that Sony needs a win; PS3 is critical
to it's entire strategy.
Sony has always been at it's best as a personal hardware company,
coming up with nifty gadgets that delight consumers. In recent decades
it's been oddly fixated on imposing it's own standards-Betamax for VCR's,
the Mini-Disc for digital music players, the UMD for PSP, the Memory Stick for
everything else-despite the world's unwavering rejection of those standards.
And Sony has never displayed an aptitude for software or had great success
with networking, the key feature built into the XBX.
Yet Sony has to face MS not just in gaming but across the entire panoply of
home electronics, which MS is determined to control through software.
Sony has to do this with cash reserves of $6 billion-
compared to Microsoft's $38 billion- all while losing hundreds of dollars
in manufacturing costs alone for every PS3 sold.
Eventually the price will come down, but in the meantime Goldman Sachs
projects Sony will lose nearly $2 billion on the PS3 by the end of this fiscal
year in March.

Sony lovers- and they are legion-have been watching all of this wth awe
and trepidation. It's not everyday that a $64 billion a year corporation
put's it's future on the line. It's betting the company, if this thing bombs,
there is no second coming. Everything else about Sony is a sideshow.
This is the show.

............................................

I'll post more if wanted or deserved.
Suffice to say Sony is in a bigger pinch than I even suspected.

Guruboy's slam on 'kiddie claims' was even further off target than I'd guess.
Boy I'd felt real stupid having posted some cr@p like Guruboy did;
and have some major periodical punk my thread out for a pack of cigarettes.

[FantasyGhost]

Well i'm buying a PS3 (pre-ordered already 6th in line) and a Wii. I really don't care what anybody else thinks about the price. And keep saying i can't afford that, while they're putting every year a new GFX card in their PC's. Think about it. You buy the XBOX 360 and afterwards you'll need to buy a HD-DVD player separated, OK the price is still less then a PS3 all together. But you don't have to worry about things like that because the Blu-ray inside the PS3 will be used for games aswell. While the HD-DVD of XBOX 360 is only being used for movies.
There's already the game Resistance taking up 22GB http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1539078/20060821/index.jhtml?headlines=true

I'm there's an interresting article going on about searching to cure cancer while your PS3 is folding. The Wii i'm going to buy just for that new experience you get with the remote controler.

[Random]

Ditto FG m8, I don't care about the pricing, its not affecting my puchasing decision.

[JAGPANZER]

Well you two are the large exception.
3DO sold machines to people with your attitudes as well;
but history shows not enough.

The article is very detailed at not just a anti-Sony rant.
The declining sales over the past 5 years is nothing to laugh at.
Their stock value has dropped by over 50% in that same time frame.

If too many people take the wait till the price comes down attitude
--and a good many people here have said just that-- that will effectively
kill Sony as not buying one at all.

Moreover,
A 22 GB game? You think you're gonna pay anything less than over $60
for it? I'd be suprised if games of such size didn't have a 30-40% price increase
to make up for the added investment and time spent on the game.
How well do $90 and $120 games sell? Ask Konami how well the
Steel Battallion series sold.....Yeah I bought those too; but not enough
to matter to the number crunchers in accounting.

As for BR the article made a good valid point; how many formats has Sony
successfully pushed into the market----answer: zero
Unless Sony can get the porno industry to go BR,
it's over before it even started--to that note Vivid among others are leaning
towards HD-DVD technology because it is cheaper to upgrade to it.
If that be the case, then Sony has already lost the HD format war
they just aren't aware of it yet.

As well the only reason you don't have a PS3 now is primarily because of
various problems with BR earlier this year. Thanks for nothing as it were.

You can get one but don't think your purchase alone will suffice.

My Samsung Nuon is testement to that.

[FantasyGhost]

I'm well aware that most people don't want to pay up for a PS3. Because of it's HD-DVD compeditor is cheaper etc. But as i said HD-DVD can at the moment go up till 15GB on a single disk, where Blu-ray can get 50GB now and even in a few years time 200GB with 8 layered disk (correct me if i'm wrong).

And it's being told that the stand alone players that are out on the market today it's a winning situation for the HD-DVD players, by a little margin. There were test done with the Samsung blu-ray stand alone player and the toshiba player. This because Toshiba has been out longer with it's HD-DVD players then Sony has. And it's just been made available to make 50GB blu-ray movies so lets wait and see what happens in that departement. There were even some movie companies, i've read somewhere, that got over from the HD-DVD side to the Blu-ray side. But then there's still the big problem of M$ support i guess on the PC, they're now supporting HD-DVD isn't it?

On the game price: When asked whether PlayStation 3 games would be priced in the same range as Xbox 360 titles (currently $59.99 for most high budget titles), Hirai suggested that: “Generally speaking, over the past twelve years or so, there has been a consumer expectation that disc based games are maybe $59 on the high end to $39 on the low end. So, what I can say now is, I think it would be a bit of a stretch to think that we could suddenly turn around and say ‘PS3 games now $99.99’." http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=9901

We'll see what happens when on 17 Nov i guess :)

[JAGPANZER]

C'mon FG I expect more of you than this.

Go back to vrba's original thread
http://www.mgforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=45957
The 45 gig HD-DVD is operable.

Kutaragi has shown a leaning towards a Krazy Carts type of gaming set up.
In theory your base PS3 game could be free or pretty close to it.
The hook is the upgrades, mods, maps, and levels which would all be available
for download for a fee. You could blow just about as much as you wanted
on a specific game: there is no ceiling to the actual game price in this set up.

Yeah well from what I have read a lot of companies AREN'T falling in line
with BR primarily due to distrust of Sony DRM methodologies.
Betamax was still kept for commercial purposes,
and is still used in some markets; but VHS took the retail sales.
All due to the porno industry choosing VHS over Beta.
BR will remain, if Sony survives, largely for commercial purposes;
as well as BR-RW would be a pretty reliable optical memory unit.

But no retail DVD dominance.

Add to this that most people are happy with their DVD players as it is.
A lot just got through replacing all their older VHS fave's with DVD versions.
Few people would see reason to get another format.
SA-CD's have been out over ten years now and still remain a niche product.
They sell as many SA-CD's a year they do vinyl LP's.
So while SA-CD's are superior in audio reproduction, present CD's are fine
for the majority of the retail public......hence SA-CD will never be successful.

I bought a Nuon enabled player under the pretense that Nuon enabled DVD's
would offer a better viewing experience, as well as play games.
But not enough people shelled out the $499+ at the time for the respective
Samsung and Toshiba Nuon players; so few Nuon enabled DVD's were ever
made--games as well as movies. But it's VLM is pretty righteous.

And yes, MS/Intel are putting their money and influence behind HD-DVD.

[FantasyGhost]

I see what you mean.
I don't know how it is with the XBOX 360 but with the Blu-ray it's gonna be region free games just like the PSP is at the moment. Which means you could play any game made from Japan etc without waiting for it to come to US or Europe. It's a plus, but also a minus for the "underworld" because they would let believe their modchip is for a region free use. Which means less sales from the "underground" world.

But then Sony came up with a great idea, which is now going to get over on the XBOX 360, that isthe homebrew scene will be able to make their own apps, games, whatever.... As you can see what's happening with the PSP lots of homebrew apps are being made available on the scene. Off course also apps for piracy, but it's still nice to see what people can do if they can put their mind to it.
Where are we with the XBOX 360 at the moment? No homebrew development, but all hacking through the dvd drive software.

What you get with the Blu-ray will perhaps come for the PS2 backwards games etc, but not for PS3 games, there won't be much hacking on the Blu-ray drives in my opinion. If you can see the homebrew scene is excited about the linux content that will be made available on the PS3, you'll know great things will come from them. And you'll just want to be there to enjoy what they're making.

Ok most "scene" things don't even get through to the majority of people on the streets, but still. Maybe Sony will make things more available for all those others who don't know what the actual "scene" is.

And as you mention the downloadable content won't be free. We still can't be sure what they'll do with it. We only know that going online on Sony's servers will be free, unlike XBOX Live and Marketplace.

Ok Betamax didn't make it even the PSP UMD movie format isn't going well. But they'll have to get it right someday, right? They are trying new ways to get movies to go on the PSP, like downloadable movie content to get it on the Memory cards etc... The movies on the PSP sucked because it has less content then the actual DVDs and the price was really expensive. While people were finding new ways to get DVD content converted to the PSP format.

[JAGPANZER]

Linux isn't a big draw for the most part.
A niche group of users and homebrew dev crews will not be enough
to keep the Sony behemoth from going over the cliff.

MS is playing strong hardball for the PC's dominant OS to remain Windows type
and not cede anymore significant turf to Linux. Hence the X360 is still easier
to program for than the PS3 will be. How much easier? Friggin IBM is trying
to create an"octopiler" to help synch the eight different Cell processors
code running---translated: right now it's almost as nightmarish
as it was coding for the Atari Jag or Sega Saturn. I say almost because
Sony(unlike Atari or Sega) are doing their most to help gaming houses
learn the Cell's nuances. But still, needing a seperate octopiler doohickey
in addition to the std dev kit? Doesn't look exactly programmer friendly.

Homebrew will kill the PS3 not save it mark my words.
With the price indexing as close to the margin as it apparently is,
they need solid sales of every premium title period.

Sony doesn't yet have any established SCEA PS Online servers.
All current console online games are using the respective titles'
design house servers. Though this will change, it hasn't yet.

Sony is considering starting a debit card service of some type
along the lines of the XBXLV payment scheme.

The difference between the two is best illustrated as such.

XBX Mall will only allow shoppers who have already registered.
Lollygaggers, foot draggers, and ne'er do well's are just taking up server time.
Every once in a while the mall doors open up and everyone is let in
for a few games and a little window shopping: just enough to give you
a reason to get a better job or work a few more hours.
Money talks, suckers walk at XBX Mall.

Sony Mall is open to all, kind of. They let you in the mall in general,
but the stores that are worth going to or shopping in are off limits
unless you register to each store individually.
Sony doesn't run the mall, it just has it's name on the doors.
It's up to the individual vendors to operate the mall.

But you will pay cash on the barrelhead for premium software content, period.

We are with Quake 4 in the next hardest setting at the moment.
We are dismissive of Over G6 fighter---what kind of flight sim won't let
you barrel roll? This one for starters.
We are digging Prey.
We are still loving PGR3.

Region free? Uh hello, I'm a citizen of the New Rome I don't need to get my
games off Ebay from some kid in trashcanistan. There are plenty in my region.
If I want to play the few bizarre titles from taiwanaland bad enough,
I'll just buy the Kosube special edition most limited with matching controller,
pillow, t-shirt, and cell phone light up caddy.

[JN4OldSchool]

I am not reallu up on the gameing side of things, though I do browse these sections more than you would think, so correct me if I'm wrong anywhere. But I couldnt resist adding my 2 cents regarding the homebrewers. It is my understanding Sony slammed the door on all the hackers with their PSP mods. Cant have anyone porting non-ps games to the psp naturally. cant have people browsing the web unless sony controls it. Maybe this has changed in the last year and a half, but I remember thinking when the PSP came out what a marvalous, ingenius little device. All the hacks that were available. Sony should embrace this, people are doing their R&D for them for free! But Sony threw a hissy fit and put a new chip in the thing. Cant have people tampering with their proprietary property...Now rumors are flying about the PS3 containing Linux! Think I'm jumping for joy being the Linux nerd I am? Pfft...like Sony is going to honor any open source GNU GPL agreements. Right...Their OS may be based on nix but it will be as closed and proprietary as MS. If Sony cant make a buck off it you think they are just going to give it away? And not that it has any bearing on gameing, but why would MS bother trying to fight Linux JAG? They have like 85% or better of the market splitting the scraps between all forms of nix and mac (which is or was a form of nix...) Lol, let them waste their time fighting Tux. Truth is no one profits from open source. I dont give a flying you know what how many people use FC5. Linux is MS's biggest threat simply because Linux is not threatning. No one is out to make a buck, control your computer, tell you what software you must run, or bound and gag you with DRM BS. I say let MS stay on top. They are the best decoy for the viruses, spyware and haters. Meanwhile, I can get down to the business of enjoying my computer.

[JAGPANZER]

The only reason MS has any grudge against Linux is because
of Sony's desire to use Linux as a base for an as yet refined Sony OS(SoS).
This is at it's nut about what OS will be the dominant gaming OS.
MS and Intel have a vested intrest in the PC to be a MSintel gaming machine.

Consequently if Sony could lure off enough development house to go linux,
then they could forgo having to ship XP or Vista on their electronic devices.

This is a Sony vs MS fight.
The WIRED article describes Sony Bosses anticipating a turf fight with MS
way before the XBX even came out. The XBX was an actual pre-emptive
shot across the bow of Sony with the twofold intent by Gates
(this was in his book) to make sure that MS operating systems remained
the gaming OS of choice, as well as ensuring it's dominating presence
in the consumer market and business sector.

Gate's takes nothing forgranted.

[Guruboy]

Why can't anyone just wait for the consoles to come out? We know that hardware they have, so what's the point in making all these predictions? I feel the argument is over until the PS3 and Wii release.

Of course I was wrong about PS3 production having started, but the article I used was completely legit and the news was repeated several times on many internet sources. The actual facts about that situation still look in the grey area...in the end if I can go out and get my reserved PS3 on launch day, I don't really care. It's the people that really want to see the PS3 fail who're the ones that follow everything leading up to release like that.

Add me to your exception list, JAG, plus the 50,000 people (out of almost 100,000) that frequent Gamefaqs every day who answered a poll "Do you plan to pre-order a PlayStation 3?" ranging between "Plan? I've already got mine pre-ordered" and "No, but I plan to buy one off the shelf".

[JAGPANZER]

50,000 to 200,000 will not be enough.
The entire production lot has to sell, not just the first shipments.
The software sales must be complimentary to the consoles sold.
If all goes well, Sony will lose ONLY $2 billion by next march.

Don't be such a whiner.
I ain't looking forward to anything other than another day.
I've bought my share of PS2's. Wazzit?
I have to buy 6 before I can trash talk Sony? 5 isn't good enough?
Add to that a PSX, PS1, and a PSP(probably buying 2 more).
Why don't you PSS off with your lame inferences.

I got that article out of WIRED magazine you putz.
I give them a bit more credibility than some junk you got online.

Yeah Goldman Sachs are just looking forward to Sony tanking it;
listen to yourself fanboy. Reality doesn't jibe with your imaginary
knownothing world. I wasn't even aware Sony is/has been doing
as bad as they are financially speaking.
Only one year of profit in 5?
Stock devalued by 50%?
Down to $9 billion in cash reserves?

What exactly don't you understand?

Don't get mad at the Messenger here.
I'm only telling you like it is.

[born2phrag]

I don't care how well Sony do or don't do. I'll get a PS3. Not because I think blueray is gonna be awsome (which I don't), not because I think the proce is reasonable (which i don't), but because every console no matter what it is, will have at least one game that will be good, and that I will be looking forward to. Right now, as far as the PS3 is concerned, MGS4 and FF13 are on my radar. Just as Halo was when I bought my XBOX and Tekken was when I bought my Playstation.

Regardless of my purchase of the PS3, I doubt it will be the success Sony hope/need it to be. If history has taught us anything, it's that a console that is difficult to develope for will fail, and a new format (blueray) devised by Sony will make the PS3 struggle.

Microsoft on the otherhand have a winning combination. They have a console that is reportedly easier to program for and a DVD format that has been [apparently] adopted by more manufacturers than blueray.

[Erasmus]

Add me to your exception list, Erasmus, plus the 50,000 people (out of almost 100,000) that frequent Gamefaqs every day who answered a poll "Do you plan to pre-order a PlayStation 3?" ranging between "Plan? I've already got mine pre-ordered" and "No, but I plan to buy one off the shelf".

Why am I being mentioned in a thread I haven't posted in?

[born2phrag]

Why am I being mentioned in a thread I haven't posted in?
LOL, I think he means Jag :error1:

[Erasmus]

I've been mistaken for JAG?

I'm not sure if I should be insulted or complimented.

[JAGPANZER]

Me neither.




jj--lol

[Guruboy]

I meant JAG.

I choose insulted.

The simple fact that Gamefaqs doesn't include anyone in Japan is enough for me. Of course, some people just can't stand that Asians are smarter than them.

You're taking the whole source subject completely out of perspective. If you can't trust internet sites like TomsHardware, Engadget, CNet, and...um...MEGAGAMES (all of which reported that same information), how can you trust one magazine making a prediction written by one guy? Magazines and internet sites are all the same in the end. They earn their credibility, and they're both simply words typed up by a person (one is printed). The difference? You read an article that was written waaay before September 2006. It obviously took some research. This guy who wrote it is reporting from information that he had a couple months ago. Times change, and that's why any reliable internet source is a much better choice for news and information than a magazine article written a month or two before release.

This is not Sony vs MS at all. The arguments we've all been hearing are Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD, Cell vs not Cell, hell it's PS3 vs Xbox 360, but it's not Sony vs MS. Sony did not release PS3 just to promote Blu-Ray, and Blu-Ray was not made for gaming, for PS3. They are both higher capacity discs that can provice HD quality pictures, that's it. Sony is working on their Blu-Ray hardware, they're working on consumer electronics as always (having seen a jump in sales recently), they're working on implementing STI Cell into the consumer market. MS is kicking it with Vista, and continuing their software ambitions. This console war is not Sony vs MS.

[JAGPANZER]

It isn't Sony vs MS?
Sez you. Kutaragi seems to be driven by that notion.
Much of the home electronics that Sony is looking to produce,
more and more is containing MS software on it. Thus Sony must pay
MS royalties for each unit produced with the MS software on it.
Kutaragi hasn't liked this since 1998. The whole linux dev kit for the PS2
was their early attempt to gauge the acceptance and viability of linux
to its gaming/programming community.

If Sony can get Linux as a default industry standard, then they won't have
to ship servers, high end stereo components, computers, home networking
accessories, phone networking products, etc.. and the like with MS software.
Which means no more royalty checks to MS.

Their electronics division hasn't posted a profit for the total fiscal year
since 2003. Some quarters are better than others; but the year end total
has been in the negatives for 4 out of the past 5 years.

Sony stock down by 50% from 5 years ago; this has not changed.

The losses have been so bad that it would require 3-4 back to back gangbuster
years just to get their nose above water! It is that severe.
If their sales proceed along at more realistic and sustainable levels,
they are looking at not breaking even until around a month or two
before the PS3 life cycle is coming to a relavant end.

As for your misguided sources,
they get their info from SCEA PR nerds for the most part; early on anyway.
As the hardware becomes more accessable then independent reviews
from people not on Sony's payroll are able to start adding to the info pool.

ex.
Gamasutra had a big write up over SCEA sacking one of their developer
supervisors because he gave the hype regarding the PS3 a serious blow
in the development community by telling how the shortcomings of the Cell
are quite stark and will be very difficult to code around.

WIRED is a pay to read publication. Unlike everyone else you listed
they don't give infotainment for free and inaccurate glaringly mistaken
articles are the quickest way for them to end up with sales figures
as bad as Sony's. It doesn't cost any of the other places you listed anything
to be wrong. Hence their information is worth what you paid for it.
The article in question was completed sometime in mid July early August 2006.
The issue was shipped to subscribers at the end of August 2006.
Newstands won't get it for another day or two as they can't shelve it
till the 1st of Sept/06. That being the labor day weekend start, don't
expect total issue saturation until the 4th or 5th of September/06.

Goldman Sachs carries more punch and heft than any source you named.
And that was WIRED'S financial research source.
Unless you read the Financial Times, you won't find out
the news contained therein at most of the places you listed either.
To whit I have posted more than a few links to the FT regarding
skeletons in SCEA's financial closet. It's still news if nobody has mentioned it.
Regardless of when it came out, it's still news.

Even vaunted MG isn't immune.
For my part, EVERY SCEA pr nugget they ran that I found a bit wanting
I hit it with everything I had. To my credit I haven't been wrong about
anything regarding Sony now for going on like 3 years.
I have popped every balloon of significance they(Sony)
or their clueless dupes(fanboys) sent up bar none.

I did't even know it was that bad for Sony, not by a long shot.
I was shocked upon reading the total financial details of the last 5 years.
In many ways it was hard to totally grasp, it just didn't seem possible.

But it is.
The facts check out.
If this doesn't fly like a rocket there may be no PS4.
If Sony doesn't win the HD DVD format it will be hurt.
It doesn't want to be paying Toshiba royalties like they did JVC:
they can't afford to.

As for MS,
they are pushing onward into the home networking area, as well
as their software, gaming, and hardware divisions.
XBX is a pet division of Gates.
Unlike SCEA, XBX has access to that $36 billion if it needs it.
Sony will/can only allow the SCE division so much of their $9 billion.
With SCE costing Sony at best $2 billion by March/07 that puts Sony
down to $7 billion cash reserves; the Tokyo bean counters won't do it.

Hence it is all over but the shouting.
The porno industry is adopting HD-DVD.
IF MS can turn this into a full out war of attrition, the end is in sight.
Sony will either pull a Sega, or get taken over by the Japanese govt
and the various divisions not connected to govt or military interests: sold off.

In short Nintendo could be set to make the biggest comeback
in videogaming history; perhaps the biggest comeback in any market genre.
If it goes bad enough for Sony, Nintendo stands to soak up a lot of talented
disgruntled Sony developers looking to exact some payback on MS.

Most amusingly, just as the old Sony CEO used to berate his R&D guys
for not having invented something like the Gameboy first.
I believe his statement was,
"That should have been a Sony product."
And now of all things, the Wii.
More than a few industry observers have commented,
"That should have been a Sony product.".


And Gates will get as a retirement present the dominion of console gaming.

[FantasyGhost]

Here's another article: http://www.sundayherald.com/57661

[Guruboy]

They spelled Blu-Ray wrong in that article, and they compare HD DVD's capacity of 15 Gb to the dual-layer BD capacity of 50 Gb. Of course any idiot knows that 200 Gb discs have been developed. These people didn't do their research, way too many articles like that floating around.

Paying for your information in print doesn't mean the source is any better than an online source. In any case, we're talking about two different things here: an opinionated article written weeks in advance of publication, and news written up and posted a couple hours after it occurs. You feel the need to argue about it in general...they're both fine sources, just in different settings. Yours being "I didn't do the research to come to this conclusion myself, I bought a magazine and posted someone's opinion as my own, without looking at all the information and making my own conlcusion."

It doesn't matter if a Sony executive "seems" to be playing this like it's Sony vs MS. Some people truly believe that these companies are pitted against each other when one of their many products competes with another. WRONG. You want a real life example? The STI in STI Cell stands for the three biggest companies in the technology's developement: Sony, Toshiba, and IBM. Toshiba, by the way, is the premier hardware support for HD DVD, the competing format for Blu-Ray. The bigger the company, the less they duke it out in one company vs another, because they need to work together on projects like STI Cell all the time.

Some evidence of this mindset of one company always against another no matter what setting is apparent in this stupid Wired News article (http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,71085-0.html), where the abstract says "As Sony and Toshiba lock antlers over who will dominate the high-capacity DVD market".

Sony vs MS? You only wish it was that simple.

[JAGPANZER]

The first information out is often wrong.

bottom of pg. 190 beginning of pgph 8

The culture of the lone-wolf hardware engineer reached it's apex when
Ken Kutaragi triumphed over internl opposition to create the Playstation.
In the early 1990's Kutaragi burst forth with a seemingly reckless scheme to
take on Nintendo and Sega, the ruling powers of the game world.
Yet even then Kutaragi viewed Microsoft as the ultimate enemy.
Shuji Utsumi, a former Playstation exec who now heads the Tokyo-based
game developer Q Entertainment, recalls an exchange in which Kutaragi
declared, years before the XBX was introduced, that his competitor was
Microsoft. "I thought, what is he talking about?" Utsumi says.
"Is he nuts? But even before the Playstation(1!) was born, Kutaragi was
predicting a big war for the living room."

In short guruboy is now synonymous with fanboy: congratulations!

By the way toshi is the premier hardware support for HD-DVD....
all this and more in guruboys edition of Duh.


The argument over HD DVD capacity is over and your side lost.
You are not going to find a 20+ gig game of any decent acceptability
for under $60+ bucks until weeks after it's release in the clearance bin.
A 50+ gig game? Easly expect to shell out over $120 for a game of that size.
200+? Whoa, I doubt even a game fiend spendthrift as myself could
justify forking out that kinda dough unless it came with a bonus controller
i.e. Steel Battallion. If it's over $300 they better include a free Tshirt and cap.

Big BR-DVD/RW's will be kickazz for like DVR/PVR's
as well as optical memory drives. And people won't mind shelling out
$50 for a blank disk in those applications, heck $50 is almost a steal.

But for mass consumer appeal, not likely to find much traction.
I see people who are still clutching to their VHS, this doesn't bode well for BR.

FYI, Sony and Toshiba are in a competition to get their format accepted
by the consumer first. It may not matter to certain clueless dolts,
but it matters to Sony. The loss of the last DVD format forces Sony to pay
Toshiba royalties for every DVD capable player shipped,
as well as every DVD made and sold by Sony Pictures.
This is why the first XBX didn't ship
with an enabled DVD drive-too keep it's cost down.
As such the XBX doesn't carry the DVD logo.
No for that you had to buy the DVD remote kit.
The Toshi royalty cost was directly shunted to the consumer,
and to show compliance the DVD receiver that plugged into a port
bore the DVD logo.

Frank Rose just had the time to marshal all the relevant data to present
an argument that I have been waging piecemeal now for 3 years.
That his conclusion is similar to mine means nothing other than we both
are decent at math as well as the history of the gaming industry.

I've skewered SCE's latest press releases
with their own earlier press releases.
My scathing evaluation of their various electronics hardware
and subsequent customer service is a matter of archived MG record.
As well as noting that I have numerous Sony devices still as well as
intentions of future Sony/PlaystationX products.

You are just a PS fanboy who can't handle being outgamed.
I lived through this before.
Only last time the players on the scene were Sega and Nintendo.
Atari and 3DO were playing strong rearguard efforts until a company
with nothing to bring to the game industry in the way of experience
or history. Nothing but the deepest pockets in the industry.
What gaming experience they lacked they simply bought.
Competing game houses either allowed themselves to be bought,
or watched as all their best developers were picked off one by one.
Atari collapsed.
3DO abandoned the costly($499) M2 Bulldog development to
eventually evolve into the software gaming giant EA.
Sega gave a good fight, but market missteps and miscalculations
caused their abandonment of hardware development and a rededication
to becoming a multiplatform gaming house.
Nintendo was hammered almost to the edge by a newcomer who
had brought nothing but deep pockets and the intent to use them
to get to the dominant position in the market.
That company wasn't Microsoft, it was/is Sony.

History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes.

[Random]

Game developers are not that stupid, there's no way in hell they'll relase a game that costs over $100, the most i've seen a game for in the UK was £70, and that was for MS Train Sim.

We have another media war on our hands once again, only time will tell.

IMO I think Sony will lose once again, unless Blu-Ray is seriously publicised, HD-DVD is what the public will chose, all because of the two simple letters "HD".

[JAGPANZER]

I didn't think of that angle!
Too funny.

Okay, game developers won't release a game over $100.
So they will just work for free to fill up a 50 gig disk?

Or rather, you'll buy a 50 gig disk with 50 gig's of gaming goodness on it
for around $60. The caveat is that you'll only have access to like 15-20 gigs
of it at most; the rest you purchase in bits and pieces by online transactions.
There is no cracking it yourself. The disk's locked down areas are encrypted.
If your HDD or mem unit doesn't have it's lot series designated key,
you will not play those portions.
Moreover given Sony's recent DRM efforts, don't be suprised if Sony
hacks your PS3 if you are detected trying to bypass the DRM keys.

Nobody will produce a game needing 50 gigs of space with the
expected quality for anywhere near what we are paying now.

Just how much should a good 50 gig game go for?

[Erasmus]

As technology improves it becomes easier to create a game that is far more complex than its predecessors. The largest game I have installed on my computer today is Dreamfall, it comes to 6.1GB, it came on a DVD. Why is this game so much larger than its predecessor, The Longest Journey, which installs to around 2GB and comes on 4 CDs?

Because the technology is available to make that sort of complexity feasable and cost effective. As technology advances, so it becomes easier to add levels of complexity that just weren't possible or cost effective before.

Look at it this way: You give a team of 10 game developers computers and tools from ten years ago, and tell them to make a game. It would have to use an old graphics engine. That means fewer polygons in characters, it means less complex effects, it means 2 channel audio, not 5 or 7. They are severly limited by the technology, and without these added complexities the game is small.

Then you give them access to the same technology we have today. Suddenly they have 7 audio channels, a graphics engine that supports physics, lighting, and all the bells and whistles, and the game they would make would have a much much bigger on disk.

It's like the difference between using Microsoft Paint and Paint Shop Pro. The same amount of effort yields far more complex results from PSP. In games this complexity means a game that takes up far more disk space. But that doesn't mean it cost more to develop, or it will cost more to buy.

I remember when 1GB was a lot of HDD space to have on a computer. Games still cost a lot back then.

[JN4OldSchool]

lol, my X-Plane install on my big computer is over 60GB!!! Thats right, I said GB! But that includes the entire world map. Plus a ton of planes, cars, boats, custom scenery...it is an amazing little world. The funny part is to get even better resolution and reality you would need 100X more info. Google earth database runs around 60-70 terrabytes if I recall right. So I see at least a little use for higher capacity storage mediums and I can also see games creeping up there.

[JAGPANZER]

Sure, but all this huff and not one mention of a price.

A static map is one thing JN4, but a fully interactive globe with destructable
terrain as well as multiple hunter AI opponents?

Flying around the scenery is one thing, fully engaging it is another.
Different coding requirements that should be obvious.

Erasmus your view is noted, but OVERRULED.
The machine in question here is requiring IBM to come up with a separate
machine to synch the coding with the processor architecture.
That "Octopiler" as it is referred to doesn't exist yet.
Just empty bottles of advil and rockstar cans in the PS3 dev rooms.

What is looking more and more a shrewd move on MS's part was having the X360 core coding codeveloped with Nintendo.
This makes it relatively simple for gaming houses to embrace
both the Wii and X360 as experience learned from one machine
can be used with little adaptation to the other.
This puts the PS3 as the odd man out
The Wii and X360 use MS sourced OS', the PS3 is a Linux lite OS.
Again odd man out.

Heck why not used square shaped DVD's while you're at it.
Spin the laser assembly instead.
Ship every PS3 out with a 440v power supply and make the adapters
next to impossible to find in your region.
Ship the PS3 in a tamper resistant/proof box with
kevlar re-enforced wrapping tape.

The next generation of gaming doesn't start until you get the box open.


....and you ain't getting the box open.

[acal3000]

is Dreamfall, it comes to 6.1GB, it came on a DVD. Why is this game so much larger than its predecessor, The Longest Journey, which installs to around 2GB and comes on 4 CDs?


.

Tomb Raider Legend 10 GB:grayuhoh:

I remember when I had a 386 with 142 Mb of HD in those times was a lot of space. Now that don't even serve for store Win 98 on the Hardrive

[Erasmus]

JAG, I wasn't talking about the PS3 in particular, just saying that I that the disk space games take will continue to increase with the advancing of technology without the games costing more (relatively speaking, not counting inflation of course)

Tomb Raider Legend 10 GB:grayuhoh:

I remember when I had a 386 with 142 Mb of HD in those times was a lot of space. Now that don't even serve for store Win 98 on the Hardrive

I still have a working 386 laptop. It's great, weighs as much as the moon. It actually has its own gravitational pull. I think it still has the original shareware version of Doom on it as well.

[born2phrag]

No one is debating that in time the cost of a 50GB disc will be cheaper. But today and in the next year or so, how much of price difference is there going to be? I doubt that they can afford to charge £50 for a 50GB game disc.

Consider this if you will:

A blank rewritable blu-ray disc at 25GB costs £14.04 from OCUK. And the equivalent DL DVDRW disc is £17.63 for a pack of 10, working out at £1.76 per disc.

An XBOX 360 game will cost you at minimum £44.99 new. Assuming that the game is on a dual layer disc, that means that for a £1.76 blank disc, you pay 25.5 (1.76*25.5 = ~44.99) times more to get the equivalent data on a game.

If we apply this same logic to a 25GB blu-ray disc, that £14.04 disc will cost you £358.29 as a game. And this is applying to a 25GB disc, NOT the 50GB equivalent.

Obviously this isn't a true representation of will happem, it might very well turn out that this isn't the case. But it does give you some idea of how much a 50GB blu-ray game disc can potentially cost.

[Erasmus]

economies of scale, born2phrag (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economies_of_scale)

[born2phrag]

I was only making an analigy. I wasn't saying this would happen. Obviously if more units are sold, products will be cheaper. And if you fully read the post, I said:

Obviously this isn't a true representation of will happem, it might very well turn out that this isn't the case. But it does give you some idea of how much a 50GB blu-ray game disc can potentially cost.

[JAGPANZER]

Theory is nice.
Reality is a bi+ch.
Your POV is recognized Erasmus, but it doesn't apply to this
specific circumstance for a myriad of reasons.
But your point is taken; it's just not applicable.

The Sega Saturn was one difficult puppy to code for.
Regardless of how many they sold, it never got cheaper to dev for it.
The PSX was a whiz to code for in comparison to it's
direct competition mainly Saturn, Jaguar, and the FZ-1.
Nintendo's exclusion is only because they were still using solely cartridges
and that itself was more expensive than CD-ROM's.

Game developers are not going to give their time away in large enough
blocks consistently enough to produce cheap 50 gig games period.

[Guruboy]

It's not that games will be bigger because they have larger worlds or more complex gameplay, it's the fact that HD content, as in the textures and audio, is bigger. Consider this (http://www.ps3portal.com/general/article/487.html) article.

So the battle between HD DVD and BD in home video is still to be concluded, but the BD player in the PS3 was the right choice, at least in the opinion of the game developers PS3 portal interviewed. HD discs for video right now? Not needed as much. HD discs for gaming? That's a different story.

As for game size, let's consider the latest and largest games with their PC prices:

Oversize for one DVD:
Tomb Raider Legend: 9.9 Gb, $40
Microsoft Flight Simulator X: 14 Gb, $50

Undersize for one DVD
G.R.A.W: 5 Gb, $40
Oblivion: 4.6 Gb, $50
F.E.A.R: 5 Gb, $45

All around the same prices. Catch my drift?

And that's not even a next-gen lineup of games, consider the 22Gb PS3 launch title (http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/13864)...Blu-Ray not needed my ass. This title is being released only for PS3 simply because of disc capacity, nothing else.

Nobody will produce a game needing 50 gigs of space with the
expected quality for anywhere near what we are paying now.

Oooh! I see now! So because there are no 50 Gb games now, that means we'll never need them? Screw 50 Gb, let's not even think about it. Let's think about Xbox 360...let's think about NINE Gb. We've certainly exceeded 9 Gb for PC games, and we only have to wait for the PS3 launch to REALLY exceed 9 Gb for consoles.

[born2phrag]

...but the BD player in the PS3 was the right choice, at least in the opinion of the game developers PS3 portal interviewed.
Well, it's not like a Playstation dedicated article is going to interview any devs that are going to bash the PS3 in any way shape or form are they? That would be plain retarded.

[Guruboy]

Oh god don't make me laugh. What the hell is a "Playstation dedicated article"? Don't give me that crap. News is news. Some other news site could report that, it doesn't matter. PS3Portal is very highly regarded, and it's been reporting all the news on the PS3 good and bad.

Game developers choose which console to release on, that's a fact. I don't think Ninja Theory is a Sony-owned developer. They choose the PS3, and that article explains why.

What people do when faced with, say, and forum post, that goes against their general ideas ("I hate PS3" for you) is they take one insignificant part of the post and try to base an entire arguement off of that. Your point is insignificant because you're not arguing about the actual article on PS3Portal, you're mentioning something they wouldn't write about (bad stuff about PS3). Even if PS3Portal purposely refrained from posting bad news about PS3, the good news is still reality. News like that article.

[JAGPANZER]

You know the sad thing is that you believe most of the crap you type.
Two postings of nothing but spin control and misinformation.

News is not news.
The junk you are referring to is more aptly described as propaganda.

If you had an argument, you wouldn't need to try twist my words
around or distort what I said. Hence you show your desperation.

I never said there would never be a need for 50+ gig games.
I said you would not find good ones that were cheap.

A few developers may wish to donate their time towards making
a beautiful 50 gig game and sell it for $60, but just a few.
Heck Sony maybe looking to farm out software production to India
and get away with paying them 1/5th the going rate of Tokyo/US dev teams.
--yeah mammu---

Otherwise you'll get these cell shaded
(texturing and other effects takes time)
monstrosities not worthy of an HDTV.

My statement is based solely on the observation that people
are having continued cows over the $60 price of X360 games.
SCE is going to be losing enough money on the PS3 as it.
Generally most console houses recoup some of the losses through
their in house software sales. But you are implying that Sony is
willing to lose money on the software end too?
Add(or is that subtract) to that your direct statement
that PS Online will be free: translated-Sony is willing to lose money on that too.

You don't know what the hell you are talking about.
How exactly is Sony supposed to make money if they are
selling hardware below cost
selling software below cost
giving away online server time for free:doh:

I guess uberfanboys like you mail their allowance
and lunch money to SCEA to make up for any shortfall.:dorky:

Your ignorance on this subject is blinding.
You need to pull your head out of SCEA's butt, that isn't coffee you smell.

And just so you'll know.
The veep of Toshiba Australia already let it slip that an HD-X360 will be
released sometime soon as it is part of Toshiba's marketing plan to sell
the HD-DVD format
(that and HD players are with the exception of the PS3
1/2 the price of a BR player<$500 vs $1000!!!).
So the X360 will get a new revamp in a few months; a most convenient
excuse for me to get another X360.


Iomega is researching an 850gig DVD under the names
AO-DVD(articulated optical-digital versatile disk)
as well as another high cap format
NG-DVD(nano grating-digital versatile disk).
Not BR but RR.

[FantasyGhost]

Europe: Sony Delay PS3 Launch Until March 2007!

PRESS RELEASE: Sony Computer Entertainment Europe Announces New March 2007 date for European Launch of PLAYSTATION 3

No change in launch date for Japan and North America

London, Wednesday 6 September 2006 – Sony Computer Entertainment Europe (SCEE) today announced that it would revise the launch date of its PLAYSTATION® 3 computer entertainment system in the PAL territories of Europe, Russia, Middle East, Africa and Australasia from 17th November 2006, as previously announced to March 2007.

Launch dates for Japan and North America will remain the same, which are November 11th and November 17th respectively.

The revision of the launch date in the SCEE territories is caused by the delay in the mass production schedule of the blue laser diode within the Sony Group, thus affecting the timely procurement of key components to be utilised in PLAYSTATION 3.

The previously announced PLAYSTATION 3 shipment forecast of 6 million units globally within the fiscal year ending 2007 is not changed.

Another article: http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/09/06/business/AS_FIN_COM_Japan_Sony_PlayStation.php

[JAGPANZER]

It gets better.

Word out over the wire that due to component shortages,
the US release will be limited to only 400,000.

How exactly do they expect to put 6 million in people's houses by March?

not good
not good

This is the type of business as usual crap SCE
has been giving us for going on 6 years now.

hurry up and wait

[Guruboy]

Yes, the delay is a little unfortunate for those in Europe that I really don't care about. Like I've said, as long as I get my pre-ordered PS3 in November, I'm fine with it.

How exactly is Sony supposed to make money if they are
selling hardware below cost
selling software below cost
giving away online server time for free

When did I say I cared if Sony didn't make money off of the PS3 right away? Like I said, I get my product and a couple games, and I'm good to go. The product is superior, I'm getting a BD player from it, and I'm paying a premium price. Sony would have to not sell a single PS3 for it to actually effect their service to the consumer.

It's not like all the countries effected by the delay have a very large share of the release at all, I don't give a rat's ass about them. Sony doesn't see them as a very big source of business for the PS3, so that's why they're reserving their half a million release products for North America and Japan.

The shortage is reported to be from BD laser shortages...unless BD players are down to $500 by March, I think all the members of economically inferior countries can wait.

I have a friend in the UK, and I've preordered a PS3 for him, which I'll ship to him. He just needs an extra power supply. However it's cheaper for him and he'll be getting it within two weeks of release. If all the people in these countries actually want one, they'll make a genuine effort like that to get it. This guy isn't a really good friend, so he's paying me a little money. No big deal for him. He's one of the few Europeans smart enough to make an effort for something he wants.

[born2phrag]

Well done Sony, you can officially kiss my butt. Simultaneous release my ass. I'm just gonna spend the money I was going to spend on my PS3 on something else and wait for the price to drop by alot. They dented my faith in them with the [numerous] delays of the PS2 in Europe. They wounded my faith in them with the excessive delays to the PSP in Europe. Now they've succeded in killing off ANY faith I had in them with this [latest] four month delay. Congratulations Sony; you really have really pissed on us [loyal] customers this time.

But I guess every cloud has a silver lining as they say, more money to spend on my Wii :D

Oh, and frankly Guruboy; Europe doesn't give a "rats-ass" about you either ;)

[GODLIKE_noob]

Id wait for the first few recalls to buy one.

[born2phrag]

Personally I'm not too fussed about how many are recalled. i think of it more like an inconvienience (sp?) than anything else. Were I worried about recalls, I wouldn't of gotten my 360 when I did, nor would I have gotten my Playstation 2. lol. The most important factor(s) to me is games available and price (of games and the hardware).

Other than FFXIII and MGS4, not many PS3 games are appealing to me atm. My plan was to buy one as soon as one or both of those games were released, but I said above, I'm too pissed at Sony to even contemplate spending £500-600 on another one of their consoles. Hopefully those games will be ported to either the PC or the 360 so I won't have to be tempted to get a PS3 for a long time.

[JAGPANZER]

Well I take it your limey friend has an NTSC TV just for video gaming.
Japan/pac rim, Canada, and the USA/americas are the only
major markets that use NTSC video transmission.
UK/EU use PAL
The former USSR combloc's mostly use SECAM, but PAL has been creeping in.

This batch of PS3's is NTSC only.
I imagine they do have NTSC/PAL converters, but the signal interference
has got to be almost as bad as an RF connection.

Half a million? The word on the street is closer to 400k than 500k.

Pre-order? Man.........Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
SCEA culled the 'official' preorder reserve back in the azz end of April.
No single videogame dealership knows how many PS3's they are getting.
If you got a reserve from a large franchise store that chose to recognize
your preorder; it makes no difference.
The central BestBuy/WalMart/whoever inc. doesn't know how many
they are going to get any more than the indie vid shop does.

You may have a good rapport with your local video house manager,
as well as know your local SCEA rep(which I do). Hence your odds
of getting a PS3 are better than at the BestMartCo, but not by much.
I do wish you luck as you will still need it.
Though going by your post if you are denied a PS3 for any reason on 11/17
then you will be of a different brownnose attitude than you are now.
Still, even fanboys deserve their day.

You should care if Sony makes money.
If they don't make what they need to,
that PS3 and couple of games is all you will get.

the graveyard of technically superior machines
3DO FZ-1, 3DO M-2 Bulldog(stillborn)
Atari Jaguar 64
Atari Lynx
Sega anything
Sony Betamax

It's okay EU, for a little bit more than one PS3,
you can get a Wii and a X360.
Take care of those who take care of you.

[born2phrag]

It's okay EU, for a little bit more than one PS3,
you can get a Wii and a X360.
Take care of those who take care of you.
That's my plan any way. Half way to that already ;)

As far as the PAL/NTSC thing, any recent TV bought in the UK will allow you to run NTSC signals. My import U.S. PS2 runs perfectly, and the picture is of equal quality to that of my PAL PS2. Although saying that, some other TV's I've tried had poor picture quality. I guess it depends on what TV you are using.

Edit:
Well, if things weren't bad enough, apparently, Sony aren't even going to bundle a HDMI cable with the PS3. More good news from Sony...

[JAGPANZER]

I figured that to be an eventuality.
Probably like it is here with A/V connections on your TV.
The newer/more expensive TV's have considerably more AV ports
than the baseline TV's which don't even have composite much less S-V.
I would imagine a dual PAL/NTSC TV would be a must have
in the EU with all the interchange between our citizens.

In Sony's defense regarding the HDMI cables.
HDMI equipped TV's are still rare for the most part in the average household.
Even the X360 didn't ship with advanced composite AV,
I had to buy mine separate.
Now if on release day they don't have any
or enough HDMI cables, then that would be another story.

However on release day I don't think it's the lack of HDMI
cables that is going to be the big problem.